Arizona Diamondbacks Hold a Wild Card Spot and a Deadline Dilemma

The Arizona Diamondbacks woke up Thursday with a run differential of exactly zero — 492 runs scored, 492 allowed — and a share of a playoff spot. Those two things do not normally sit next to each other, and together they explain why the next four days matter more than anything else Arizona has done this season. At 57-52 the D-backs are 11.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, which sounds like a season quietly winding down, and tied with the Phillies for the second National League Wild Card, which sounds like a season just getting started. The trade deadline is Monday, August 3 at 6 p.m. ET. Mike Hazen has to pick a lane, and the club just spent a week making the choice harder.

Arizona Diamondbacks go 4-3 through St. Louis, Washington and Pittsburgh

The trip opened well. On July 23 in St. Louis, Arizona hung a five-spot on the Cardinals in the eighth and won 10-6, with Tyler Locklear going 3-for-5 with a homer and three RBI, Gabriel Moreno 3-for-4, Adrian Del Castillo 3-for-5 and Ildemaro Vargas 3-for-5. Brandon Pfaadt gave six innings of two-run ball. The next night in Washington, Eduardo Rodriguez threw six innings of two-run ball and Paul Sewald finished a 3-2 win.

Then the Nationals hit everything. On July 25, Mitch Bratt walked five and gave up five runs in five innings in a 5-3 loss. On July 26 it got loud: James Wood hit two homers, CJ Abrams hit two more and went 3-for-5 with three RBI, and Washington won 10-7. Geraldo Perdomo homered and drew three walks, Moreno doubled twice, and none of it mattered because Kohl Drake and the bullpen allowed ten.

Pittsburgh was stranger. On July 27 the D-backs wasted a terrific Merrill Kelly start — 5 2/3 innings, one unearned run, six strikeouts — and lost 3-2 on a walk-off in the tenth, with Max Kepler's 3-for-5, two-RBI night going to waste. On July 28 came the game of the week: Pfaadt threw seven scoreless, Arizona led 6-0 through seven, and the bullpen gave the whole thing back. Ryan Thompson allowed three runs in two-thirds of an inning, Sewald allowed three runs and two home runs while recording a single out, and the Pirates tied it 6-6. Arizona won it 8-7 in twelve, behind a James McCann 4-for-6 line, three hits from Nolan Arenado and two scoreless innings from Gerardo Carrillo. Then Rodriguez closed the series on July 29 with eight shutout innings on five hits, Moreno hit a two-run homer, and the D-backs took it 3-0.

Eduardo Rodriguez is holding up a rotation that shouldn't work

Rodriguez is 10-3 with a 2.48 ERA over 130 2/3 innings and Arizona is 17-3 in his last 20 starts. After his 105th pitch in the eighth on July 29, he asked Torey Lovullo for the ninth and his first career complete game. Perdomo and bench coach Jeff Banister lobbied for him. Lovullo said no: "120 pitches for him at this point in the year is a little bit risky, but maybe in another place and time it could happen."

That the rotation functions at all is the odd part. Corbin Burnes and Ryne Nelson are on the 60-day injured list and unavailable until September. Zac Gallen has been on the IL since July 9 with right elbow inflammation. Michael Soroka is out with a left glute strain. A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, Andrew Saalfrank, Blake Walston and Cristian Mena are all on the 60-day, most of them from elbow or shoulder surgery, and Drey Jameson joined the 15-day on July 21 with hip inflammation. Behind Rodriguez, Kelly has a 4.86 ERA and 22 home runs allowed in 109 1/3 innings, Pfaadt is 5-1 with a 4.00, and the fifth spot has been handed to Bratt (6.32) and Drake. Arizona's staff still ranks 17th in the majors at 4.20 — a genuinely respectable number given the roll call.

The ninth inning has a new arrangement

Sewald has 24 saves and a 5.26 ERA, with 11 home runs allowed in 37 2/3 innings. After Pittsburgh, Lovullo moved him out of the closer job and said the team will play matchups late with Brandyn Garcia, Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loaisiga and Kevin Ginkel. On paper that group is the strength of the roster: Garcia has a 2.17 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 29 innings, Morillo a 2.68 with 52 strikeouts in 43 2/3, Loaisiga a 2.57, Taylor Clarke a 2.23 with an 0.87 WHIP. Arizona has 14 blown saves, and the last week showed why the committee is the honest answer rather than a demotion dressed up as strategy.

The offense, not the pitching, is what's actually short

Arizona is 21st in the majors in OPS at .706 and has hit 104 home runs, and the lineup has been carried by a catcher. Moreno is at .308/.390/.455 in 336 plate appearances and has been the club's best hitter for two months. Corbin Carroll is at .251/.345/.482 with 15 homers and 15 steals — productive, not the MVP-track version. Ketel Marte leads the team with 19 homers but is on base at a .306 clip. Arenado is at .244/.322/.420. Perdomo is hitting .228 and has still gotten on base at .350 thanks to 68 walks, which tells you how patient he has become and how little he is squaring up.

First base has been open since Carlos Santana and Pavin Smith were let go, and Vargas, Tim Tawa and Locklear have shared it. Del Castillo's .585 OPS in 183 plate appearances is a hole. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is on the IL with an adductor strain, Tommy Troy with a sprained AC joint, Jordan Lawlar with a hamstring. There is a version of this team that adds one real bat and looks meaningfully different in September.

Arizona Diamondbacks deadline math: buy, sell, or thread it

Hazen has said he wants to buy: "I want this team to make a deep run in the pennant race and into the playoffs." Assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye framed the trip as the tiebreaker — "If you keep winning series, it makes the decision a lot easier" — and Perdomo put it plainly: "We gotta buy." They did win two of three in Pittsburgh, so the trip finished 4-3.

The counterargument is on the ledger. Arizona is 26-37 against teams over .500 and 21-11 inside the NL West, a split that suggests the record is partly schedule. MLB.com still lists Rodriguez among the available starting pitchers, and he is signed through 2027 at $19 million with a vesting option for 2028 — the kind of contract a contender would take on and a rebuilding team would happily shed. The NL Wild Card race is a scrum: six teams sit within 2.5 games of the last spot, including the Padres, Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Cardinals. Selling Rodriguez while holding a playoff spot would be defensible and deeply unpopular.

What's next

Arizona is off Thursday and opens a three-game set in Cleveland on Friday, with Bratt facing Tanner Bibee. Then the schedule does the front office no favors at all: the deadline passes at 6 p.m. ET on August 3, the same evening the Padres arrive in Phoenix for four games, followed immediately by three against the Dodgers. San Diego is 55-53 and 1.5 games behind Arizona in the wild card standings. Whatever Hazen decides on Monday, he will find out how it plays within about 72 hours, in front of the two teams the D-backs would most like to be measured against. There is no soft landing on this calendar, which is probably the fairest test a zero-run-differential team could ask for.