Cleveland Guardians Survive a Brutal Week With Their Season Intact

There is a version of the past week where the Cleveland Guardians lost their grip on the season entirely. They dropped five in a row, got shut out three separate times, and were held to one hit in a 1-0 loss at Tampa Bay on a Sunday when Parker Messick pitched well enough to win almost any other game. Then they went to Cincinnati, got rained out, split a doubleheader, won the finale 6-1, and arrived at Thursday's off day at 56-54 — a game and a half behind the White Sox in the AL Central and firmly in the wild card conversation. Cleveland is 2-5 over the coverage window and somehow no worse off than when it started. That is the AL Central for you.

Five Straight Losses, Three of Them Without a Run

It began on July 23 against Minnesota, and it was cruel. Gavin Williams threw seven innings of two-hit, shutout baseball with 11 strikeouts and got nothing for it. Patrick Bailey's solo homer was Cleveland's only run. The Guardians managed three hits and seven walks across 12 innings, struck out 10 times, and lost 3-1 when Erik Sabrowski gave it up in the 12th.

Tampa Bay was worse. Friday's 11-3 loss was over early — Joey Cantillo allowed five runs in 3 2/3 and Shawn Armstrong gave up three more before leaving the game with what turned out to be a left calf strain. Austin Hedges homered and drove in two. Saturday brought a 3-0 loss in which Tanner Bibee allowed nine hits and three runs over six innings and Cleveland collected five singles. Sunday was the low point: Drew Rasmussen, Garrett Cleavinger and Bryan Baker combined on a one-hitter — a Steven Kwan double — with 11 strikeouts in a 1-0 game. Rasmussen alone went seven innings with nine punchouts. Messick went 7 2/3 innings, allowed one earned run, walked nobody, and lost.

Gavin Williams Struck Out 23 Batters and Went 0-1

Two starts, 14 innings, five hits allowed, two earned runs, 23 strikeouts, one walk. Williams' reward for that was a no-decision and a loss. The second start came in Tuesday's doubleheader nightcap at Great American Ball Park, where he punched out 12 Reds over seven innings and lost 2-0 because Cleveland managed three hits.

Williams is now 10-6 with a 3.71 ERA and 168 strikeouts in 133 1/3 innings, the most punchouts on the staff. He has become the thing Cleveland has been waiting on for three years, and the offense keeps making it invisible. Bibee is the other side of the same coin: a 3.89 ERA and a 4-10 record. Messick, meanwhile, has quietly assembled the best line on the staff at 8-6 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 125 1/3 innings.

Cincinnati Gave the Guardians a Reset

Monday's series opener was postponed by rain and made up as the first half of Tuesday's doubleheader. Cleveland scored four in the first inning on a Kyle Manzardo grand slam, his 12th homer, and then immediately gave it back — Slade Cecconi allowed four runs in 3 2/3, and the Reds led 5-4 through four. Chase DeLauter's sacrifice fly tied it in the fifth. Brayan Rocchio dropped a squeeze bunt in the eighth to score DeLauter with the go-ahead run. Franco Aleman struck out five over two perfect innings, Colin Holderman got the win, and Cade Smith recorded his 30th save.

Wednesday's 6-1 win was the cleanest game the Guardians have played in two weeks. Cantillo threw four scoreless with eight strikeouts on a short leash. The offense hung four in the fifth on a Travis Bazzana RBI single off Brady Singer, back-to-back bases-loaded walks to Manzardo and Gabriel Arias, and a Bailey sacrifice fly. Manzardo added his 13th homer in the seventh. Kwan, Ramírez, Bazzana and Arias each had two hits.

What Is Actually Wrong With the Cleveland Guardians Offense

Cleveland has scored 432 runs, 14th of 15 American League teams, and carries a minus-14 run differential at 56-54. The individual lines explain it:

• José Ramírez: .237/.332/.398 with 10 homers and 26 steals in 79 games, back from the 10-day IL since July 22.
• Steven Kwan: .247/.348/.305 with one home run and 52 walks — all the on-base skill, none of the damage.
• Chase DeLauter: .280/.351/.440, 11 homers, 51 RBIs. The best all-around hitter on the roster.
• Kyle Manzardo: 13 homers but a .211 average and 110 strikeouts.
• Rhys Hoskins: .173 with 11 homers, 44 walks and 92 strikeouts. A three-true-outcomes season with the wrong ratio.
• Travis Bazzana: .244/.340/.399 with nine homers and 15 steals in a rookie year that is going fine, not great.

The most damning detail: Austin Hedges, a career backup catcher, is hitting .282/.342/.415, which is a better OPS than everyone on the roster except DeLauter. Patrick Bailey, acquired from San Francisco, has hit .222 in 44 games with Cleveland — an improvement on the .146 he posted with the Giants, and still not enough.

The Guardians Bullpen Is Holding Without Its Closer

Cleveland has allowed 446 runs, sixth-fewest in the AL, and the relief corps is doing that without Emmanuel Clase or Luis Ortiz, both of whom remain on the restricted list amid MLB's ongoing gambling investigation — a situation that has been in place all season and shows no sign of resolving before the deadline. Cade Smith has stepped into the ninth and converted 30 saves with a 2.52 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 50 innings. Holderman has a 1.71 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 42 appearances. Hunter Gaddis is at 2.78, Sabrowski has 52 strikeouts in 31 innings, and Tim Herrin returned from the IL on July 24.

Armstrong's calf strain landed him on the 15-day IL on July 25. Cleveland recalled Daniel Espino for the doubleheader — he threw a scoreless inning with three strikeouts behind Williams and was optioned back the next day. Espino debuted on June 17 after years of injuries and now has 12 strikeouts in six major league innings. He is not the answer yet, but he is a name worth tracking in August.

Deadline Posture: Buyers, Cautiously

The deadline is Monday, Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. ET. Cleveland has made no trades during the coverage window; the last transaction of note was buying right-hander Ryan Degges from Philadelphia for cash on July 4. MLB.com's Guardians coverage indicates the front office intends to explore all opportunities to improve and considers itself positioned to buy given the standings, with enough prospect capital to do something meaningful.

The need is obvious and it is not pitching. This team gets shut out in stretches and then wins 6-1 and everyone pretends the problem is solved. A legitimate middle-of-the-order bat — one who does not strike out 30 percent of the time — would change the math of a division that will likely be decided by three or four games. Whether Chris Antonetti pays a contender's price for one is the question of the next few days.

The Cleveland Guardians open a three-game set with Arizona at Progressive Field on Friday, Tanner Bibee against Mitch Bratt, then host the Mets beginning Aug. 4. And then it gets serious: Cleveland travels to Rate Field for three games against the White Sox beginning Aug. 7, with the AL Central lead sitting right there. Two flawed teams, one race, and a deadline in between that will tell you which front office actually believes in what it has.