Detroit Tigers Keep Winning as the Tarik Skubal Question Looms Larger

Nobody would have blamed the Detroit Tigers for sleepwalking out of the All-Star break. They limped into mid-July eight games under .500, the division a distant rumor, and the front office openly fielding calls on the best pitcher alive. Instead, Detroit went west and won four of six — taking two of three from the Angels in Anaheim and two of three from a very good Cubs team at Wrigley — to run their record to 48-54 and stretch a quietly remarkable surge to 13 wins in their last 18 games. That's the tension defining Detroit Tigers news right now: the team keeps playing like a contender at the exact moment the calendar demands the front office decide whether it is one.

The Week That Was: Four Wins in Six on the Road

The second half opened Friday in Anaheim, and for eight innings it looked like a rusty, post-break dud. Reid Detmers spun six scoreless for the Angels, and Detroit carried a 1-0 deficit into the ninth. Then Kirby Yates hit a batter, walked another, and rookie Hao-Yu Lee lined a two-out, two-run double to flip the game. Kevin McGonigle preserved the 2-1 win with a leaping grab of a high chopper at third for the second out of the ninth. Rookie starter Troy Melton struck out nine over 5.2 innings, and Keider Montero threw 3.1 scoreless innings of relief with five strikeouts for the win.

Saturday was the Tarik Skubal show. The two-time Cy Young winner threw seven shutout innings — five hits, nine strikeouts, no walks, 19 swinging strikes on just 87 pitches — and Spencer Torkelson mashed two homers, including a three-run shot in the first, in a 7-0 laugher. Colt Keith went 4-for-4. The Angels salvaged the finale 3-2 on Sunday, one of those games that stings more later if the wild-card math gets tight.

On to Wrigley, where Monday turned into a slugfest. Riley Greene hit a three-run homer in the first and Dillon Dingler went full video game: 4-for-5 with three home runs, plus the go-ahead infield single in a three-run tenth. Torkelson added a two-run single in that inning, and Detroit survived 8-6 after Ian Happ's two-run shot had tied it in the eighth. Jack Flaherty, back from the injured list, gave up three runs in four innings but the bullpen and the bats covered for him.

Tuesday was a mess best described quickly: Framber Valdez recorded two outs, allowed six first-inning runs, and the Cubs rolled 11-2 behind David Peterson's 6.2 innings of three-hit ball. Dingler's two-run homer in the ninth — his fourth in two nights — was the only offense. Wednesday, Detroit answered the way good teams do. Montero, moved from the bullpen into the rotation spot, struck out eight over 5.1 innings of three-hit ball, Torkelson and Lee both homered — Lee's a three-run shot in the fourth — and four relievers allowed one hit the rest of the way in a 5-1 win that clinched the series.

Standout Performances: Dingler, Torkelson, and the Kids

Start with Dingler, because four home runs in two days at Wrigley is the kind of week that changes how people talk about a catcher. His three-homer Monday was his third career multi-homer game — all of them coming this season — and he's increasingly the middle-of-the-order anchor nobody projected. Torkelson had himself a road trip too: the two-homer, four-RBI night in Anaheim, the two-run single in Monday's tenth, and a solo shot Wednesday in a 2-for-3, three-run game.

Then there's the youth movement. Hao-Yu Lee delivered the two biggest swings of the week's two tightest wins — the ninth-inning double Friday and the three-run homer Wednesday. McGonigle's glove saved Friday's game. Melton, per ESPN's pregame numbers, took a 5-1 record and 1.82 ERA into his start and punched out nine. On the mound, Skubal's Saturday gem was the headliner, but Montero's week — a multi-inning relief win Friday, then eight strikeouts as a starter Wednesday to improve to 7-5 — might have been the most valuable pitching development on the roster, given how thin the rotation has been.

Where the Detroit Tigers Stand in the AL Central

Here's the cold water. Even after all that winning, the Tigers sit fourth in the AL Central at 48-54, six and a half games behind the first-place White Sox (54-47), with the Guardians right on Chicago's heels and the Twins between Detroit and the top. The Royals, at 42-60, are the only team looking up at the Tigers. In a soft American League, the wild-card picture is more forgiving — Detroit entered Thursday roughly three games back of the final spot, where Seattle was clinging to .500 — but there are three or four teams to climb over, and climbing over teams is a lot harder than gaining ground on one.

The schedule, at least, is cooperating. As MLB Trade Rumors noted this week, Detroit plays ten straight games against sub-.500 clubs before the August 3 trade deadline. If the Tigers are going to make the front office's decision genuinely difficult, this is the stretch to do it.

The Skubal Question Hangs Over Everything

Now the storyline that swallows all the others. Skubal is a free agent after the season, and the reporting has been steady: MLB.com listed him among the most sought-after names on the market back in June, alongside Casey Mize (a free agent this winter), relievers Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen, Gleyber Torres, and Flaherty. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this week that if Detroit does move Skubal, the preference would be a package headlined by a lesser but more controllable big-league starter — names floated in that reporting include Emmet Sheehan, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Andrew Painter. Treat all of it as reporting, not fact; nothing has happened yet.

The wrinkle most fans haven't priced in: MLB Trade Rumors reports the Tigers are roughly $1.6 million over the $244 million luxury-tax threshold. That matters because if Detroit keeps Skubal and loses him in free agency, being over the line would shrink the compensation draft pick from a selection worth about $3.2 million in pool money to one worth roughly $569,000. One reported path: shed salary — Jansen at $11 million or Finnegan at $9.5 million — to duck under the line and keep the premium pick as a hedge. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has reportedly been willing to let the team play its way into or out of a sell-off. Thirteen wins in eighteen games is a loud argument.

Injuries and Roster News

The best news of the week: Gleyber Torres was activated Monday after a month-plus on the injured list with a left oblique strain. The rest of the ledger, per the club's All-Star break rundown:

• Jackson Jobe — Tommy John rehab; touched 100 mph in a July 7 rehab start and is targeting an August return.
• Will Vest — elbow stress fracture, no surgery needed; expected to pitch again this season.
• Wenceel Perez — orbital fracture; began a hitting progression in early July.
• Parker Meadows — fractured left radius; could return late in the season.
• Justin Verlander — hamstring strain suffered during his rehab; back on a mound as of July 9, no timetable.
• Reese Olson (shoulder surgery) and Trey Sweeney (shoulder surgery) — out for the year.

Flaherty's return to the rotation Monday was the other quiet roster win, even if the results were shaky.

What's Next for the Detroit Tigers

Seven straight at Comerica Park against teams Detroit should handle:

• July 23-26: four games vs. the Kansas City Royals (42-60).
• July 27-29: three games vs. the Baltimore Orioles, another sub-.500 club.

Then a West Coast trip that carries them past the August 3 deadline. Watch three things: whether Dingler's power surge travels home, whether Montero holds a rotation spot, and — obviously — every Skubal start, because each one might be a farewell or a recommitment depending on the week.

The honest read on the Detroit Tigers is that they've become the most interesting bad-record team in baseball. The record says seller; the last three weeks say something more complicated, and the schedule gives them ten games to make the argument. If they feast on the Royals and Orioles at home, Harris's phone gets a lot less interesting and Comerica in August gets a lot more so. Either way, the next eleven days will tell us more about this franchise's direction than the previous three months did.