Colts run it back with Daniel Jones — if his Achilles cooperates

The Indianapolis Colts spent 2025 as a genuine surprise before injury derailed them, and their 2026 hinges on one question: which version of the team is real? Indianapolis re-signed quarterback Daniel Jones this offseason and is betting that a healthy return recaptures the form that had the Colts in playoff position before disaster struck.

The Daniel Jones story

Jones's Indianapolis tenure was a genuine revelation. After winning a preseason quarterback battle with Anthony Richardson, Jones went 8-5 as the starter and had the Colts posting the NFL's highest early-season offensive efficiency, playing the best football of his career. Then, in Week 14, he tore his Achilles — and Indianapolis cratered from a 7-1 start to an 8-9 finish. The re-signing is a vote of confidence, but the Achilles injury casts a long shadow over the season. How Jones looks coming off that injury is the defining variable for the Colts.

What Indianapolis has

The strong first half of 2025 wasn't a mirage — it was a genuinely good offense playing at a high level. If Jones returns to that form, the Colts have the makings of a playoff team in a winnable division. The roster around him showed it could compete with anyone when things were clicking. The challenge is that Achilles injuries are notoriously difficult to return from at full explosiveness, and there's real uncertainty about whether Jones can be the same player.

Season outlook

Indianapolis's 2026 comes down to health and consistency. The version of the Colts that started 7-1 is a playoff team; the version that finished 8-9 without its quarterback is not. Everything hinges on Jones's recovery. If he's back to his early-2025 self, the Colts are a legitimate factor in the AFC South. If the injury saps his mobility or the early success proves unsustainable, Indianapolis could slide back toward the middle. It's a high-variance season built on a bet that a strong first half was the truth — and that Jones can get back to it.